Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2018 10:09:31 GMT
My fear is that, in such a vote, with there being 2 brexit options and 1 remain option, that the chances of the remain option prevailing are small. Have I got that right? I don't think many leave voters are going to put remain in second place. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe enough would go soft brexit first, remain second, hard brexit third.
Who knows.
What a mucking fess.
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Jul 17, 2018 22:06:28 GMT
Don’t lose heart, Vić. The thought that has sustained me through most of this is that the situation would be too much for a competent government, let alone Theresa Not-Very-Smart’s Circus. We can’t crash out because that would break Ireland, which has been the one big domestic success in my adult life. We can’t leave the customs union or the Single Market because that would destroy manufacturing and break what’s left of the North for ever. And we won’t stay semi-detached, because that would subject us to rules we can’t help to define and leave us less independent than we are today - which is, incidentally, more than adequately independent.
There will be much noise from those whose only purpose is to make noise. But it will eventually die down and life will gradually return to pre-2016 normality. It may take another (political) generation to restore the trust and influence in Europe that we once enjoyed, but we really should have thought of that before.
|
|
|
Post by tyrednexited on Jul 18, 2018 7:15:31 GMT
...keep it up Dubya, you will (like others in a Brexit context) be invoking Yeats yet.......
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2018 9:11:41 GMT
Calls from all sides for a government of national unity today. Maybe that's some hope. How would that come about? Vote of no confidence in the government, but then no general election? Could parliament propose a motion to appoint a particular person as PM in the existing Parliament, Dominic Grieve for example?
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Jul 18, 2018 11:26:35 GMT
Seems to be only Anna Soubry so far. Since she’s already crossed the Rubicon of voting against her own party. a national government is probably easier for her to envisage than for most of her party colleagues.
|
|
|
Post by bromptonaut on Jul 18, 2018 11:39:42 GMT
Calls from all sides for a government of national unity today. Maybe that's some hope. How would that come about? Vote of no confidence in the government, but then no general election? Could parliament propose a motion to appoint a particular person as PM in the existing Parliament, Dominic Grieve for example? I've thought (dreamed?) for a while that such a solution might emerge in order to stop the Tories' inability to govern sending us all over a cliff. AIUI this would be possible without an election. Under fixed term Parliament legislation a vote of no confidence with a majority of two thirds is required to trigger an election. OTOH if there is only a simple majority then dissolution only occurs if no new government is formed within 14 days. That would give the breathing space to form say a National Government under leadership of a nominated individual who should be somebody without further ambition. Grieve is one possibility. Vince Cable has the background and gravitas but may be too closely identified with Remain. Difficult bit might be to secure the no-confidence motion without risking 2/3 majority and triggering an election. Could such a government stop the Article 50 clock?
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Jul 18, 2018 12:33:56 GMT
Any government could stop the clock - or end the whole process - by asking for more time or termination. The Article 50 rules require unanimous agreement from the other 27 countries (not, note, from the Council or Commission) but they’d have no reason to withhold it.
I wrote again to my MP yesterday. He’s a 62-year-old time server in a blue donkey constituency, who has brushed off my previous suggestions. My main angle this time is that the referendum result itself is unsafe - something I first put to him in November 2016 - and that the Venice Commission’s code of practice says it should be annulled. Annulled, that is, unless it was an advisory referendum, which he’s always (wrongly) insisted it wasn’t.
I imagine he’s typical of Tory MPs these days, in that he was Remain when that was the leadership line and now votes just as his leaders tell ‘im to. I expect he’ll find a way to brush this one off too, but he must be running out of excuses.
|
|
|
Post by tyrednexited on Aug 28, 2018 9:56:26 GMT
..off in a short while for our habitual late summer bimble around Europe.
Odd to think that the next such (which will be post-March next year, may/will be under very different circumstances if indeed it happens).
Will this be the last Visa-less trip? Will I need an IDP next time? Will the £/€ rate be below parity?
It's not long to wait to find out.
B@st@rds!
|
|
|
Post by Humph on Aug 28, 2018 10:31:20 GMT
Go safe and enjoy. Not jealous, at all, why would I be? Pah... 😕
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Aug 28, 2018 11:42:44 GMT
I think by next March we’ll be in the first of several extensions to the negotiating period. That will probably have been agreed at the EU Summit in December, which is the last opportunity to agree a framework agreement under which the UK can leave without running out of food, medicine, aviation rights and just about everything else. That agreement won’t happen, of course, so ‘more time’ will be the next step.
Of course, more time won’t help either, so the period will be extended again. By this time, May will be losing control of the Toxic Tebbits and with them her shaky grip on Parliament. Meanwhile, Labour will be getting the message that there are more votes in opposing leaving than in lamely going through with it. So, if it doesn’t all collapse into another referendum — which would be better than the status quo but could produce some perverse outcomes — we’ll have a general election in the winter of 2019-20 where the only real issue will be Out (vote Tory — or one last ride for whoever’s left in ukip) or In (vote for whichever non-Tory has the best chance in your constituency.) After which, there will be an entirely democratic mandate for stopping the whole ghastly business.
|
|
|
Post by commerdriver on Aug 28, 2018 13:15:50 GMT
I wish I shared your optimism over the likelihood of a different outcome in another vote whether brexitref2 or a general election, i don't think it would be any more or less clear and we would have significant damage to confidence / trust in politics, we can't keep taking votes until we get a clear result that everyone can agree with. Mrs May has had a poisoned chalice from the start and whoever governs would have done just as badly and will do just as badly as long as the stramash carries on. OK it doen't help that May is particularly incompetent and out of her depth. The only way ahead I can see is to get ahead with as low a level of damage as we can and grow from there, but it will take at least a generation of anger and claim and counter claim before it is close to settling down. I still think voting leave was a particularly stupid thing to do.
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Aug 28, 2018 13:43:41 GMT
The real stupidity was to offer an illusory choice to a nation with much to be aggrieved about, very little of it caused by the EU. Most of us have learned what we know about the Single Market and the customs union since the referendum. Most of the nation still doesn’t know or understand. We have a representative democracy for the same reason we have pilots and surgeons: some things are best left to the experts.
|
|
|
Post by tyrednexited on Aug 28, 2018 16:52:18 GMT
Go safe and enjoy. Not jealous, at all, why would I be? Pah... 😕 Well, you shouldn't be. The first night looks like being the M25 (Dartford Bridge closed with no quick prospect of opening - 2 hours stationary so far) 😕
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2018 18:19:03 GMT
Most of the nation still doesn’t know or understand. We have a representative democracy for the same reason we have pilots and surgeons: some things are best left to the experts. I was listening to a Labour MP on the radio a few weeks ago and she said that Parliament should be a reflection of society and that therefore it should contain similar proportions of genders, religions, sexualities, intelligences etc etc. I profoundly disagree with this; in terms of intelligence. If people are going to run the country on my behalf I want them honest, ultra intelligent, lots of common sense and no weird political beliefs that if they got into power would destroy society. Just people you could trust to see their way through the minefield of government. I want people with brains the size of planets to be in parliament; not single issue grandstanders who talk a good game, but couldn't argue their way out of a paper bag. That does not mean to say they have to be left or right. But intelligent enough to seriously consider the long term implications of their policies and have enough honesty to decide and state publicly if those implications are worth it. I think we have very few politicians like that now. Probably a few old school MPs from both major parties who no longer have any influence.
|
|
|
Post by Humph on Aug 28, 2018 18:46:26 GMT
Go safe and enjoy. Not jealous, at all, why would I be? Pah... 😕 Well, you shouldn't be. The first night looks like being the M25 (Dartford Bridge closed with no quick prospect of opening - 2 hours stationary so far) 😕 Well, I know it wouldn't have suited your journey, but I never go that way round the M25 anymore if I'm heading for Dover. For me, it's slightly longer in miles going down the M40 and turning right onto the M25 than the M1 and turning left, but it does seem more reliable and usually quicker. Hope it sorts itself out soon.
|
|