WDB
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Posts: 7,427 
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Post by WDB on Aug 9, 2021 6:10:16 GMT
I see that plenty of double-jabbed people end up dying of Covid anyway (around half the - admittedly low - daily death tally some days?) As usual, Tim Harford is the go-to man on this fallacy. FT subscriber rules mean you’ll have to google for his Five pandemic truths that defy intuition from 22 July, but here’s a little bit, showing how the ‘percentage of hospitalisations’ headlines look at the situation from the wrong end. So try this. Imagine that 1 per cent of the unvaccinated population will end up in hospital with Covid over a given time period. In a city of a million people, that would be 10,000 hospital stays. Now let’s say that 950,000 people get fully vaccinated, that the vaccine is 95 per cent effective against hospitalisation, and that the vaccine doesn’t reduce transmission (although it does).
Here’s the arithmetic: 500 of the 50,000 unvaccinated people end up in hospital. A total of 9,500 of the vaccinated people would be at risk of a hospital visit, but the vaccine saves all but 5 per cent of them. These unlucky 475 still go to hospital.
The hospital contains 500 unvaccinated and 475 vaccinated people — almost half and half — which makes it seem as though the vaccine barely works. Yet when 95 per cent of people take a 95 per cent effective vaccine, hospital visits fall from 10,000 to fewer than 1,000. |
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Post by EspadaIII on Aug 9, 2021 12:10:38 GMT
You did it so much better than me. Tim Harford is wonderful. So clear and accurate and able to give concise examples of hou the statistic work in real life...
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Post by dixinormus on Aug 19, 2021 3:33:51 GMT
Surprise surprise: the delta variant has made it in to NZ from Sydney. Cue total lockdown here :-(
And with 22% of the population double-jabbed we’re probably going to be in lockdown for months.
Wonder if we have a plan B now that Covid elimination has failed down under..?
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Post by EspadaIII on Aug 19, 2021 9:23:50 GMT
There is no PLan B for you lot. You're staying locked in the South Pacific until you are re-discovered by another Capt Cook.
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WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,427
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Post by WDB on Aug 19, 2021 13:19:14 GMT
Hard to see that elimination was ever going to work. Lockdowns and isolation buy time and (hospital) space, but immunity — whether acquired naturally or by vaccination, is the only lasting solution.
According to Reuters, NZ has vaccinated about 26% of adults but the number of cases is still tiny, so it’s a better place to be than many.
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Post by dixinormus on Aug 25, 2021 23:37:13 GMT
Our vain PM still thinks that we can stamp out delta...😟. All our eggs in 1 basket. How’s it working out in NSW...?
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Post by EspadaIII on Aug 26, 2021 9:37:22 GMT
The problem now for NZ and Oz is getting hold of enough vaccine to jab the whole population quickly so that you can unlock the country in time for your summer holidays. Zero-Covid is no longer a reality.
According to a Consultant friend who works in ICU, in the UK there are two separate worlds; one is inside hospital where Covid is real and serious, and outside hospital where people go about almost as if it has gone away. The numbers testing positive for Covid each day are static at about 30,000, but hospitalisations and deaths are only increasing slightly. Those in hospital are either seriously ill anyway or not vaccinated.
My next adventure after my Greek trip will be to a football match....
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Post by dixinormus on Aug 31, 2021 20:31:26 GMT
Covid cases are skyrocketing in Israel I read, despite their high vaccination rates. A third booster is on the cards for everyone.
Seems to me that the Pfizer jab isn’t that effective against delta?
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Post by EspadaIII on Aug 31, 2021 21:13:06 GMT
Probably a combination of
They only had three weeks between the first two jabs;
They vaccinated quickly and early so its effects are wearing off;
A large proportion of the Arab and Ultra Orthodox communities didn't get vaccinated at all; and
There is Covid boredom and social distancing amongst those in the younger age groups is a thing of the past.
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Post by dixinormus on Jan 17, 2022 6:31:00 GMT
NZ has started vaccinating 5-12 year olds today. Despite the WHO not advising this path of action on its website. Are kids being jabbed in UK, Israel, Chile,....?
Was surprised to read elsewhere that Chile is progressing with a 4th jab for adults - I thought only Israel had gone down that path?
When will it end...?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2022 9:03:50 GMT
My youngest got jab 1 aged 13, and has just had jab 2, just after her 14th birthday.
Eldest now eligible for a booster, which he will get asap.
Hopefully we can travel and enjoy some holidays abroad this summer, and perhaps visit my in-laws, my wife's parents haven't seen their grandchildren for 3 years now.
When will what end, dixi? Vaccinations? Well, when there is no longer any need would be the obvious answer to that. And there is still a need, and there is still no good reason to refuse a vaccination - for the vast majority of people where ther is no specific medical exemption reason.
Honestly, this persistent presentation of vaccinations as unnecessary and dangerous is absolutely repellent and deeply, deeply unhelpful.
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Post by EspadaIII on Jan 17, 2022 17:40:47 GMT
Daughter has her booster booked for next week. She is 17. Thankfully it means that we can travel to those countries that require three jabs not two (Israel being the prime example).
It seems to me that the UK really benefitted from getting AZ as the main vaccination for the first two and then lengthening the gap. Thanks to Oxford University and Sir Tony Blair for those. I hope the world sees that and becomes less rigid about Covid rules - Israel; I'm looking at you....
Not convinced that jab jab jab every six months is ideal; surely there needs to be some better targeting of the strains?
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Post by dixinormus on Jan 17, 2022 23:28:26 GMT
That’s my point Esp (that Al missed): booster jabs every 6 months isn’t the long-term answer. It’s not practical, and it’s expensive, for starters.
And vaccinating 5 year olds when the WHO advises against it is downright sinister to me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2022 0:09:37 GMT
I agree that vaccinating 5 year olds seems inappropriate. Not sure about "sinister" though.
However, the WHO seem to blow with the wind of late. It appears that any media outlet can find any opinion they want within the WHO if they look carefully enough.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2022 10:43:42 GMT
That’s my point Esp (that Al missed): booster jabs every 6 months isn’t the long-term answer. It’s not practical, and it’s expensive, for starters. And vaccinating 5 year olds when the WHO advises against it is downright sinister to me. Sorry dixi, that point, even re-reading your post now, is not in evidence so far as I can see. Thanks for clarifying. I don't see why regualr booster jabs are not practical, if they become the best option. They can be given in GP surgeries, at pharmacies, all sorts of places within easy reach of just about everybody. Expensive, yes. But so are many things we apparently need, like Brexit for example, and suitcases of booze for parties in Downing Street. |
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