bpg
Full Member
Posts: 2,812
|
Post by bpg on Jul 15, 2021 18:19:35 GMT
It's infections Vs hospitalisations. The former is accelerating, the latter at a much slower rate.
I still don't fancy catching it and will continue to wear a mask when mixing outside my little bubble.
|
|
Rob
Full Member
Posts: 2,779 
|
Post by Rob on Jul 15, 2021 19:02:15 GMT
Quite a few on the tram this afternoon were not wearing masks when I returned from Manchester. So little chance of those wearing one next week.
Spoke to another person at the lifts in 20 Stories and they basically said as of Monday they won't be wearing a mask anywhere. Well I'll try to avoid people like her.
|
|
|
|
Post by EspadaIII on Jul 15, 2021 21:17:56 GMT
Look at two sets of graphs.. First set from September 2020 to November 2020. Cases, hospitalisations and deaths. The latter two follow the former very closely with some lag.
Same graphs April 2021 to June 2021. The cases graph is very similar to the 2020 set. The other two graphs are so much low as to be negligible. The reason - vaccinations. It either prevents infection in a very large number and in those who get infected, the chances of hospitalisation is significantly reduced and the rate of death even lower.
Not that you want to get Covid - but if you did, it would be a like dose of flu. I know several people who got Covid several weeks after vaccination. They were poorly, but none went to hospital One couple in their 70s were told by their doctor that with the vaccine they would be dead. They didn't even need hospitalisation; just some TLC from their daughters who live locally.
|
|
bpg
Full Member
Posts: 2,812
|
Post by bpg on Jul 15, 2021 21:43:33 GMT
So EspIII, you are going into a large group of unmasked people after Monday. Mask or no mask ?
I'm firmly in the mask group and I'm doubly vaccinated.
|
|
bpg
Full Member
Posts: 2,812
|
Post by bpg on Jul 15, 2021 22:00:58 GMT
You can look at graphs and charts but you also have to consider individuals circumstances.
My 13 year old son is autistic and is asthmatic. Regardless of my own circumstances we, as a family, will not put his health at risk because of a graph.
Edit: I think what I'm saying is, if someone has a mask on don't assume it's done as a political gesture.
It may be because they are positive and have to be out in public
Or, possibly because they have others to consider for which there is no social badges to wear.
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,427
|
Post by WDB on Jul 16, 2021 7:07:49 GMT
What would be useful, but I’ve not seen, is a like-for-like comparison of the present situation with 2020, showing exact numbers (not percentages or rates of change) of confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
Headlines like ‘47 percent of cases are vaccinated’ aren’t helpful because, although they sound alarming, they’re barely more than statements of the obvious as most UK adults are now twice-vaccinated. That one also looks at the question from the wrong end, as what we need to know is not the probability of having been vaccinated if you’re ill, but the probability of getting ill once you’re vaccinated.
It’s almost certain we'll eventually need more vaccinations, whether as a booster or an update to combat Delta or future variants. But yes, unrestrained jollity next week seems premature until we’ve vaccinated everyone aged 12 or more.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2021 8:38:13 GMT
Look at two sets of graphs.. First set from September 2020 to November 2020. Cases, hospitalisations and deaths. The latter two follow the former very closely with some lag. Same graphs April 2021 to June 2021. The cases graph is very similar to the 2020 set. The other two graphs are so much low as to be negligible. The reason - vaccinations. It either prevents infection in a very large number and in those who get infected, the chances of hospitalisation is significantly reduced and the rate of death even lower. Not that you want to get Covid - but if you did, it would be a like dose of flu. I know several people who got Covid several weeks after vaccination. They were poorly, but none went to hospital One couple in their 70s were told by their doctor that with the vaccine they would be dead. They didn't even need hospitalisation; just some TLC from their daughters who live locally. A friend of a colleague of mine is currently in hospital in Manchester having contracted Covid. It has led to a case of HLH (https://www.gosh.nhs.uk/conditions-and-treatments/conditions-we-treat-index-page-group/haemophagocytic-lymphohistiocytosis-hlh). He is not responding to treatment and is going to die through organ failure, unless either a blood transfusion works today, or, if this fails, a bone marrow transplant donor is subsequently found very quickly and a transplant successfully carried out. My colleague is not very hopeful. The man in question is 47, and has a young family, and is otherwise totally healthy. Apparently this is a one-in-a-million condition under normal circumstances, but currently there are 5 people with it in the same Manchester hospital. |
|
|
|
Post by EspadaIII on Jul 16, 2021 9:39:48 GMT
There are always going to be exceptions to the rule regretfully. Covid may not necessarily cause a condition but turn barely known symptoms into something possibly fatal.
I don't want to get it if at all possible. But I want to keep my slighty restricted life as it was. Daily I attend the synagogue. We are spaced out by at least 2m, the windows are open and we wear masks. We practice strict 'track and trace' using an online booking system and so far no one has caught Covid from the attending. That will change next week but there will be options to attend services which are pretty as they are now, as they were pre-Covid or a mix (I think distance and windows but no mask). I don't fancy the back to as it was just yet.
We have a wedding next week. Espadrille and I have agreed that we will not dance, not shake hands or hug or kiss anyone else but will share a not too crowded table (as we do at home now if we have guests).
|
|
|
|
Post by dixinormus on Jul 16, 2021 13:35:27 GMT
10 million people currently locked down in Melbourne and Sydney, because of around 200 Covid cases and 2 deaths (both elderly) this week. Sledgehammer to crack a nut? Dunno. And I guess that’s the point - we just don’t know enough about this virus.
Cases spiralling across Japan and SE Asia too. And goodness knows what the Olympians will take home to all 4 corners of the globe in a few weeks time?😬
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2021 13:39:51 GMT
In a mainly unvaccinated country like Australia, what option is there other than lockdown or let it rip?
|
|
|
|
Post by EspadaIII on Jul 16, 2021 17:09:30 GMT
In a mainly unvaccinated country like Australia, what option is there other than lockdown or let it rip? None. Vaccination is the only way and it works very well. Inevitably there are a few casualties on the way but unless we want to have a way of life so restrictive it makes North Korea look like paradise, we need to find our way out asap. |
|
Rob
Full Member
Posts: 2,779
|
Post by Rob on Jul 16, 2021 22:02:16 GMT
>> Apparently this is a one-in-a-million condition under normal circumstances, but currently there are 5 people with it in the same Manchester hospital.
I wish him well. I wonder if I know your colleague? I know of a few people with Covid at the moment but I don't think it's serious with them.
From your link it sounds like it's normally children who get this and yet there's 5 adults in the same Manchester hospital!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2021 7:53:02 GMT
Yes exactly, Rob. I doubt you know my colleague, he was recruited as a contractor for my current programme and hasn't worked on any other programmes. My colleague caught Covid from this poor chap, but he has recovered now.
|
|
|
|
Post by dixinormus on Aug 8, 2021 19:46:02 GMT
Football stadia full of unmasked happy crowds this weekend in the UK, yet only 57% or so of the country have been double-jabbed? I Still can’t believe that things aren’t going to go horribly wrong soon.
I see that plenty of double-jabbed people end up dying of Covid anyway (around half the - admittedly low - daily death tally some days?) 😬
Australia going down fast now, goodness knows if/how NZ will keep delta out in the weeks ahead.
|
|
|
|
Post by EspadaIII on Aug 9, 2021 5:15:53 GMT
NZ can't keep it out. Simply by having goods delivered by ship or plane piloted by humans will mean Delta will get in.
I've got my season ticket for Manchester City. I'm happy to go. You will have to prove you have been doubly jabbed and it is outdoors. The death statistics are showing that the majority are unvaccinated. Hospitalisations are falling and the number of people in hospital is falling also, showing the effectiveness of being vaccinated.
I'm taking the risk to lead a relatively normal life.
|
|
