Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2020 17:12:09 GMT
Not quite sure where you're coming from, BPG.
We can start re-opening society more once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated in the first 3-6 months. that's the point of the vaccination programme, to eradicate, as far as possible, the worst effects of the virus, i.e. the deaths and hospitalisations. So once those who are likely to die or be hospitalised are vaccinated, we can start, gradually, returning to normal.
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Dec 15, 2020 17:28:47 GMT
The point of the — any — vaccination programme is to achieve the much-misunderstood herd immunity: to reduce the number of susceptible individuals to the level where an individual infection will run its course before encountering another susceptible individual to infect. Each case then becomes a dead end until, like a fire starved of fresh fuel, the epidemic peters out.
Until then, isolation is the only tool we have to achieve that effect so, to maintain the fire analogy, it makes sense to allow essential activities but otherwise keep the fire doors shut. Household mixing, especially with people from other parts of the country, is the opposite of this, and allowing it is pure pandering. If the strategy is to eliminate this disease, rather than accept that we have to live around it, then encouraging it to flare up again is a terrible idea. It doesn’t matter how careful the individual mixing households think they’re being, by allowing mixing at all we are inviting people to behave irresponsibly — and we know very well that a significant proportion will.
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Post by tyrednexited on Dec 15, 2020 20:07:48 GMT
...I'm with Al re: the vaccination program (subject to the protection being more than just short term).
Should the approach of first vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable result in a significant reduction in both hospital admission and deaths, then I think there will be a concomitant loosening up of all the restrictions, even if the infection rate remains high (but not disruptive to the NHS, or fatal) amongst those less vulnerable yet to be swept up (which I don't propose should not be done).
Both logic, and political expediency will drive this; the latter because there will be a clamour from the hoi polloi for it to be so.
I don't expect a rapid return to the full status quo ante; in particular, things like widespread cross-border travel, etc. are likely to take much longer to re-adjust, but I expect quite a bit of normal, everyday humdrum to return.
(I'm not falling for the "it's only flu" argument, but there are parallels. Vaccinating the vulnerable against flu means that the overall effects remain manageable, and the non-vaccinated, non-vulnerable aren't put into restrictions to protect them further).
On the wider Christmas note, I have grave concerns that behaviours will cause a post-Christmas spike. One only has to listen how people are interpreting the "rules" to know that there will be widespread exposure.
If it is allowed, however, my son will be coming to us for Christmas (I have been risk-managing throughout the pandemic, and though there is an increased risk, from knowledge of our own practices, and his current lifestyle, WFH and largely isolated, the risk assessment is a low one). We have seen him twice since last Christmas, both times socially-distanced, and for a relatively short time, so the risk is worth it. Frankly, it is less risky than if he were still living at home and attending school.
My daughter is not coming home, which minimises the family interaction, as logistically it is difficult (and she will most likely be visiting her partner's nearby parents, which rather invalidates it anyway). We have managed to spend a little more time with them since March, including a meal out(side) (albeit only in two sessions), so it is less of a loss.
Son's travelling is aided by the fact that his (hand-me-down) Fiesta passed it's MOT today. It "benefitted" from the 6-month MOT holiday and has done 1200 miles in the last 18 months (I know, we should really have passed him down a BEV) almost all before March. No advisories (since I put the ones from the last MOT right directly afterwards), which was all a bit of a surprise.
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Post by EspadaIII on Dec 15, 2020 20:38:54 GMT
No one is visiting us over the holidays. Daughter was going to visit friends in London, but I think that will now not happen. Espadrille and I are away in a cottage for three days will go to London to visit the mother-in-law who had a new hip a couple of weeks back. We are eating out at friends on Christmas Day evening (Friday night dinner) but I know this will be a socially distanced event; no touching each other, staying at opposite ends of the long dining table, so as strict as we are in my office. Saturday lunch at home with other friends will be similar.
Had the flu jab today. First time ever. Even I as a complete needlephobic can say it was pretty painless. Slight feeling of something, thats all. The nurse said the Covid Vaccine was similar.
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Dec 15, 2020 21:15:31 GMT
Yes, I had my flu vaccination a fortnight ago. Because I had a couple of episodes of seasonal flu in moderately quick succession (including the then-fashionable H1N1 piggy one in 2009) the surgery had me marked as 'at risk' long before I reached 50 and has been inviting me for years, but this is the first time I've accepted. Not sure why not before, but it seemed reasonable this time to do what I could to reduce the likelihood of inconveniencing the health service by getting ill.
I was in the building for less than three minutes, most of which was the time it took to remove enough winter clothing to expose an arm.
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Dec 15, 2020 22:07:38 GMT
Had my flu jab in October at Boots. They had suspended private appointment but this was paid for by my employer so they were still doing these. I'd have paid but I think the corporate offer got me it sooner. Being hounded by the GP to have a jab as is my wife. She got it through work as well.
I was asked to remain in the pharmacy (was it 5 or 10 minutes) to make sure I'd not had a reaction. I think that's normal practice.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2020 8:29:10 GMT
Had my flu jab in October at Boots. They had suspended private appointment but this was paid for by my employer so they were still doing these. I'd have paid but I think the corporate offer got me it sooner. Being hounded by the GP to have a jab as is my wife. She got it through work as well. I was asked to remain in the pharmacy (was it 5 or 10 minutes) to make sure I'd not had a reaction. I think that's normal practice. Snap, same here. And as with Dubya, first time I've bothered myself to do it, being spurred on by a nasty bout of proper flu 2, or was it 3 years ago now? Time flies. |
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Post by EspadaIII on Dec 16, 2020 14:13:19 GMT
I got the flu just after we got married. We married on a Sunday afternoon, stayed in and around London for a couple or three days to prolong celebrations and then drove back to Manchester. Four days later we were meant to be flying to Rome. On the way home I started to feel odd. By the Friday I could not get out of bed (no sniggering at the back) and a GP friend took one look at me and said 'flu - stay in bed; do not go away'. Espadrille upset and unsurprisingly annoyed but then she got it worse than me. Honeymoon postponed by six months.
I don't think I have been knocked out more other than with a kidney infection a few years later. So having reached 56 I think its time to become an annual pin cushion.
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Post by Humph on Dec 16, 2020 14:21:54 GMT
So far in life anyway, I've been quite lucky with illnesses, I don't tend to get colds or whatever very much. But, I came back from China at the end of the first week of December 2019. By the middle of that month, I was absolutely floored with what seemed to be a flu. Totally out of it for about a week, and subsequent loss of taste and smell. Hacking cough and dreadful lethargy which lasted well into January. Never felt as bad. Didn't really get back to "normal" until February.
Wonder what that was?
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Post by tyrednexited on Dec 16, 2020 14:41:12 GMT
...probably all down to Suzie Wong...... |
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Post by Humph on Dec 16, 2020 14:47:44 GMT
Only if she sat next to me on a plane...
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Dec 16, 2020 14:51:54 GMT
Yes, flu is much misunderestimated by those who haven’t had it — or who have misnamed a cold to sound like a more plausible excuse. H1N1 caused me two weeks off work, during which MrsB1’s abominable racist grandmother died and was cremated in far South Wales. MrsB1 was breezily packing for two nights away, until I dragged myself down the stairs and begged her not to go, because I could barely function for myself, never mind the 6- and 8-year olds she’d be leaving with me.
That was me fit and 41, so I can imagine how it might affect someone at a less robust time of life. (Although that flu apparently killed more young people, because a related strain had come before, and those old enough to have been exposed to it then were either immune or already dead.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2020 17:38:37 GMT
Yes, flu is much misunderestimated by those who haven’t had it — or who have misnamed a cold to sound like a more plausible excuse. H1N1 caused me two weeks off work...<snip> That was me fit and 41, so I can imagine how it might affect someone at a less robust time of life. (Although that flu apparently killed more young people, because a related strain had come before, and those old enough to have been exposed to it then were either immune or already dead.) Similar to my experience WDB. I caught the H1N1 variant in the late 70s when I was 20yo and fitter than a butchers dog. I was seriously ill for over a week and still groggy for weeks afterward. I lost over a stone in weight and credit chicken noodle soup for finally getting me up and about. Again, it was mostly younger folk who got it because a similar strain had been doing the rounds in the 50s. I used to have a quiet giggle every time someone at work rang in to say they had 'the flu' and were back a couple of days later sniffling into a hanky. Genuine flu aint something to be sniffled at. |
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Post by EspadaIII on Dec 17, 2020 11:30:09 GMT
Chicken soup - aka Jewish penicillin... Works a treat.
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Post by dixinormus on Dec 18, 2020 7:50:29 GMT
Just like Humph, my elderly Mother had a nasty flu/virus that lingered for weeks in Nov/Dec last year. Makes you wonder.
Number of cases seems to be on the rise now: new lockdowns in European countries, record cases in the US, and even a new outbreak in Sydney today. People are fleeing Sydney tonight in fear of an imminent lockdown; that won’t help matters.
One concern about vaccinations: there’s a theory that the vaccine won’t stop the recipients from continuing to transmit the disease? In which case it’s still lockdowns ad infinitum until we’re all vaccinated?
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