WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Sept 27, 2022 8:48:15 GMT
Now we know what 2019’s ‘least worst option’ really looks like, and our government has to pay more for borrowing than Italy or Greece, how confident are we feeling that we will even still live in a first-world economy ten years from now?
|
|
|
Post by dixinormus on Sept 27, 2022 9:10:38 GMT
If it’s any consolation the UK’s economy won’t be the only one going down the pan in all likelihood. Might just be the leading one. Italy’s vast debt could fatally undermine the Euro for starters, and are any of the Western nations ever going to start paying back all the accumulated debts from the past 30-odd years? The can keeps getting kicked down the road…
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Sept 28, 2022 6:38:22 GMT
Outstanding debt is not a concern if countries can afford the interest on it. The UK’s problem now (well, one of them) is that debts now maturing will cost four times as much to extend.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2022 12:56:21 GMT
Isn't it all marvellous. I understand pension funds are now saying that they're going to evaporate. Carry on voting Tory, folks. Genius.
|
|
|
Post by EspadaIII on Sept 28, 2022 14:40:53 GMT
Must admit I was scratching my head at some things. If we are going to reduce tax then surely why not raise the threshold at which it starts to be paid, so assist the lower earners before the higher earners. And then we do need to find a way to stop wasting money. If we are going to have a Scandinavian type social care system (and I can see the benefits), it needs to be waste-free otherwise it is totally unaffordable.
The only place that governments get money to pay for things is taxing the private economy. If tax is too high, people stop working (just like the own-goal of taxing doctor's pensions, so they all retire giving headaches to NHS managers) so tax must always be the lowest it can be in balance with the demands of the state and the reasonableness to the taxed.
But as we are constantly reminded, hundreds of economists told Mrs Thatcher that she was wrong and in the end, she was right (about the economy). I fear that there is too little time for this scheme to prove it's worth so that, just as wth Gordon Brown who benefitted from the economic changes designed by the Torys pre-1997, a Labour government post 2024 will benefit from Kwasi's plans.
All we can hope for is that we manage to export lots of stuff with a weak pound and attract lots of tourists. Certainly the Israeli Shekel is now worth more than double what it was in 2005/6 and the number of suitcases being loaded onto the El Al plane when I flew a few weeks ago was impressive. Primark and M&S did particularly well if the bags were anything to go by.
|
|
|
Post by bromptonaut on Sept 28, 2022 15:11:25 GMT
Raising the tax threshold isn't really targeted at low earners. I would benefit from it and so, unless the clawback is made considerably more aggressive, would people well into higher rate tax.
On the other hand anybody working fewer than 25 hours/week at the Living Wage (ie about £240/week) doesn't benefit at all as they pay neither tax nor NI.
The issue with lifetime allowances and doctors was a case of unintended consequences; the cash value of a right to a defined benefit pension is massive. Judges were similarly hit and eventually got an exemption. It would only have taken some common sense to sort out the doctors too.
Whether the economic pick up later in the eighties was because of or in spite of Thatcher/Lawson is an open question. His boom, like that of Barber before, turned out to be a sugar rush followed by inflation.
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Sept 28, 2022 21:30:09 GMT
I fear that there is too little time for this scheme to prove its worth… I really must steel myself to look inside the Telegraph to see how you got to that, Esp. Laffer Curve, trickle-down tax cutting failed for Reagan, and he had the world’s reserve currency and a labour force swelling with new-entrant women. Truss has a currency already self-harmed by Brexit and a labour force that’s struggling to retain the people it has, never mind attracting new workers. You’re deluding yourself if you think there’s hidden wisdom here. It’s idiocy born of dogma and entitlement. John Redwood, who’s having a good day if only his eyes swivel, was on R4 this morning singing its praises. That should tell you all you need to know.
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Sept 29, 2022 6:43:21 GMT
Here we are (with some help from The Guardian and Apple News)
Last week: Allister Heath, Daily Telegraph This was the best budget I have ever heard a British chancellor deliver. The tax cuts were so huge and bold, the language so extraordinary, that at times I had to pinch myself to make sure I wasn’t dreaming, that I hadn’t been transported to a distant land that actually believed in the economics of Milton Friedman and FA Hayek.
Today: And yet the Tory despair was seeping out into the public on Wednesday. “This inept madness cannot go on,” declared Simon Hoare, a Conservative MP who backed Mr Sunak for the leadership. … For now, Tory MPs, like anxious voters, watch and wait, with heads in hands.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2022 7:52:59 GMT
EIII, as with most Thatcher fans and Tory devotees, you appear to be re-writing history a little if you are asserting that the the 1979-1997 Tory governance period was one of untrammelled economic success. I personally remember a very sharp, prolonged recession and housing price crash, Black Wednesday and the ERM crisis. Why do we think Gordon Brown's choice of the words "an end to boom and bust", fallacious though they proved to be, gained so much traction?
|
|
bpg
Full Member
Posts: 2,809
|
Post by bpg on Oct 1, 2022 21:13:53 GMT
I can't see money pouring into the UK until the market has bottomed. Once the money is in it's kind of locked until it starts rising again. No one is going to rush in to that.
Property has a way to go before the money floods in.
I was hoping to sell next summer and pull out. Truss has put the mockers on that. I thought a Truss was supposed to prop up not collapse.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 9:02:18 GMT
Well if there's a housing crash now, I hope it'll recover to a new peak in 7-8 years time. That'd be perfect timing for me.
Of course it would be far better if we had a country and economy in which building paper wealth on the back of an essential resource such as housing wasn't the only way people (by which I mean ordinarily salaried, non-plutocrats and hedge fund manager friends of the Chancellor, people such as teachers and NHS workers for example who have no way to "go out there and earn more money", as we're now being urged by the Tory party to compensate for their disastrous, ideological management of the country) born since the late 60s could depend upon to provide for their retirement, but as it's the only game in town I'm going to have to play it. And by play it I mean hang on and hope for the best.
|
|
|
Post by EspadaIII on Oct 6, 2022 12:23:26 GMT
The biggest mistake of every government since the 1960s has been not building enough housing and when council houses were sold off, not using the money to build new houses. With an increasing population and an increasing concentration of power and money in London this has been a disaster.
Why is house price inflation considered to be a good thing? It is nothing of the sort and governments of all flavours are to blame.
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Oct 6, 2022 13:33:48 GMT
I broadly agree, Esp, but I think that error has been compounded by the post-Thatcher obsession with property as a store of accumulated wealth. It means that any move now to level the playing field for those too young to have caught the property bus at the time (and what’s a bus doing on a playing field anyway?) risks the wrath of those whose property it would tax and/or devalue, and the newspapers that tell those people how to vote.
By analogy, if a small sector of society were to control all the country’s water, and make it prohibitively expensive for anyone else to get any, there’d be uproar. We have sleepwalked into this ‘property-owning democracy’ that doesn’t really offer much of either.
|
|
bpg
Full Member
Posts: 2,809
|
Post by bpg on Oct 6, 2022 17:29:54 GMT
You both make good examples but they are not the sum. It's the me, me, me attitude to life. Why should I pay for something if I, personally, will not benefit directly, stuff society. Health care, education, try getting an NHS dentist, private health care company adverts springing up everywhere, it'll be the local GP next. No insurance, no treatment. Back to the pre-war days where if you did not have fire brigade 'insurance' the fire service would turn out to your house fire to make sure your burning house would not take the house next door which had insurance. Make sure the insured is not impacted, otherwise you're on your own.
My first job after university was with National Power just after the break up of the CEGB. The lack of investment in power generation over the past 30 years is another to add to the list. Privatise everything then sit back, rake in the dividends then put it all back into public ownership for the investment phase and repeat.
|
|
|
Post by EspadaIII on Oct 7, 2022 9:33:29 GMT
Although not a great lover of the NHS as it works now, I really do not understand why dentistry especially and optics are not broadly available on the NHS. Makes no sense. With dentistry, prevention is far better and cheaper than the cure.
|
|