WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 2, 2022 7:36:03 GMT
He would. And he might try anyway, especially if things turn bad for him at home and he feels he has nothing left to lose. We must hope that he also loses control of the military apparatus that would actually fire a weapon.
Extraordinary, isn’t it, to be even thinking this way?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2022 10:46:09 GMT
According to reports on Radio 4 this morning, Putin's approval and support level amongst the populus has increased in the last week and now exceeds 70%. This is the problem with targeting sanctions at the people, such as the suggestion above to disable cars. You have to account for the Russian mind set. It is more likely to push them in the direction of defiance and support for Putin and make an internal change of leadership less, rather than more, likely.
Yes, there is evidence of protest and rebellion in Russia against this criminal war. But don't depend on it getting big enough to make a difference.
The whole thing about Russia is image. It always has to project an image of greater strength, wealth and capability than exists in reality, becasue it has never been particularly strong, wealthy or capable since its birth as a nation (in Kyiv), yet it harbours ambitions to be a leading global power and always has done, and its leaders always seek to do this to greater and lesser extents and levels of success. Putin is just the lastest to attempt to become Peter the Great. Many, many Russians love leaders like this and scorn those who look outwards and attempt to behave according to Russia's real capabilities - hence the end of Gorbachev. He was too honest.
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 2, 2022 12:55:22 GMT
According to reports on Radio 4 this morning, Putin's approval and support level amongst the populus has increased in the last week and now exceeds 70%. That’s according to a poll conducted and published by the Russian government. They probably managed it down to 70 in the hope that it might remain even a little bit credible abroad. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2022 13:01:02 GMT
Was it? I didn't hear that detail. Either way, we need to be very careful what we do. We can't just assume the Russian people will swing against him and by crippling daily life in Russia we might just make the situation worse.
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Mar 2, 2022 16:01:41 GMT
The only thing we can go is put pressure on Russia in this way. Their travel by air will be curtailed even more soon, i.e. even internally. Airbus and Boeing are stopping support and spare parts.
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 2, 2022 17:57:58 GMT
India put its dependence on Russian-made weapons ahead of supporting the special UN resolution. Narendra Modi is approximately where Putin was 20 years ago and heading in a bad direction.
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Mar 2, 2022 18:22:33 GMT
But Narendra Modi is now over 70 so might not get as bad as Putin has over the last 20 years. Here's hoping.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 2, 2022 20:17:21 GMT
Can’t see Putin backing down in the short-term. Reckon he’ll soon be carpet bombing Kiev indiscriminately to crush the resistance at any price 😢
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2022 20:41:56 GMT
Can’t see Putin backing down in the short-term. Reckon he’ll soon be carpet bombing Kiev indiscriminately to crush the resistance at any price 😢 I think unless something dramatic and unexpected happens "at home" then you're right. |
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 2, 2022 21:19:46 GMT
There's been much talk of creating 'off-ramps' - ways for Putin to back down without losing face. But I've yet to hear anyone explain what such an exit might look like. He's gone so all-in with the anti-Ukrainian rhetoric that "Sorry chaps, false alarm" isn't going to work. I suspect it's going to take a revolt in the armed forces against sending young men to their deaths, and that's not something that happened in Afghanistan or in any of Putin's other foreign adventures. And if it does happen, it might mean a military coup in the Kremlin, which isn't a much more comforting thought.
I wasn't alive in 1962 but I remember the anxiety of the later Cold War years. This feels worse than that because there's no longer the near-certainty that neither side wants to make anything terrible happen. I'm afraid in a way I've not been before.
One expert voice on R4 this afternoon suggested the person who might have the trust and the gravitas to talk Putin down might be Angela Merkel. That did at least sound plausible.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 3, 2022 4:06:55 GMT
Putin has possibly taken heart in the fact that “the West” may well be almost finished as we know it. After decades of growth and rising living standards have we now reached the point where we are indebted to China for all the manufacturing of goods that we outsourced to them to save a buck, and reliant on Russia for much of our energy requirements? Oh and we’re up to our neck in debt and spend our days wringing our hands over things like wokism, gender-neutral toilets, polar bears and the like.
The fall of the modern day Roman Empire?
Many assumed that conflict with Islam might be the spark that grew into WW3, not the Russian bear that we’ve been turning a blind eye to since perestroika...
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 3, 2022 10:59:17 GMT
Oh and we’re up to our neck in debt and spend our days wringing our hands over things like wokism, gender-neutral toilets, polar bears and the like. Is this your analysis or what you suppose Putin’s might be? |
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Post by EspadaIII on Mar 3, 2022 13:37:44 GMT
One can only hope that there is some reach out to Lavrov or equivalent and give them immunity from prosecution in the War Crimes Tribunal if they do the dirty on Putin. Otherwise all of them are now dead men, it's just a question of when. They are in a deep deep hole and are continuing to dig - a bit like Saddam really - he really was found in a hole.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 4, 2022 2:40:39 GMT
Better keep an eye on the weather forecast and prevailing winds, now that the nuclear plant has been shelled in Ukraine 😬
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bpg
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Post by bpg on Mar 5, 2022 22:53:02 GMT
Chernobyl went up 36 years ago , Japan in 2011, we're still here.
When the bellends in Moscow decide to start raining bombs it'll all be too late anyway.
I still think he wants Ukraine as a buffer, a puppet in office there and Donbas area as insurance to prevent Ukraine joining NATO without redrawing borders.
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