WDB
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Post by WDB on Oct 6, 2021 10:05:25 GMT
Yesterday we had the news of a big fall in the sales of new cars in the usually buoyant month of September. Much was attributed to the shortage of chips to make them with, but there must be plenty more like me, who simply can’t be arsed. There’s little sign of a return to pre-covid levels of work travel, we mostly prefer deliveries to visiting shops and there’s generally less reason to get on the roads than at any time in my adult life.
I saw my physio this morning, at 0900 on the far side of the town centre. (I could have walked but he roughs me up enough to make me glad not to have to walk back.) Two years ago, I’d have picked a different appointment time, because driving through town on a weekday morning takes ages. Today, it was a breeze, even at the height of school-run time.
Yes, we’re seeing some odd phenomena in the secondhand car market, suggesting pressure from some who really need to buy or replace a car. But I suspect many of us are looking at the cars we have and thinking, ‘I hardly use the thing anyway, so it’s good for another year or two.’
And yes, I did buy a new car this year. But more because I liked it and could afford it than because of the kind of compelling event I’d usually wait for. (Facing an occasional Congestion Charge payment for the old i3 hardly counts as that.) And that new car at least gets fairly regular use, unlike the other two on the drive. If I didn’t have a big family car, I don’t think I’d be rushing out to buy one this year.
So it’s all a bit silly, isn’t it? Our towns are choked with private cars that mostly go nowhere. Electrification won’t reduce the space they occupy. Autonomous vehicles eventually will, so perhaps I should just go on clicking those I Am Not a Robot grids and help the process along.
Meanwhile, I helped Boy1 fettle his CV last weekend. He’s now openly describing himself as an ‘automotive engineer’, so he must see some future in it. I just don’t think the future will look much like the present.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2021 10:17:10 GMT
Odd you say that, since the school run started again a month ago, I have noticed a near return to normal traffic levels in my town. At first, the roads were emptier than normal, but I get the impression more people are returning to workplaces now as the roads are now consistently busy at rush hour, morning and evening, Monday-Thursday. Granted, my town is a little different to yours as it's a through route to other major destinations, whereas yours isn't so much, but interesting that we're seeing slightly different patterns all the same.
As for sales it must be a combination of the effect you describe along with the chip shortage.
Tesla Model 3 was the best selling car for new registrations in June and September I understand, but perhaps that's more to do with the uneven supply and bulk deliveries arriving by boat in specific months.
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Post by Humph on Oct 6, 2021 10:28:15 GMT
Guess we all speak as we find, but traffic hereabouts is back to normal ( high ) levels.
Don’t know where they’re all going right enough.
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Post by Humph on Oct 6, 2021 13:20:18 GMT
…but, I know what you mean, or at least I think I do, by absurdity. All our cars were bought with money I had, and indeed had earned a long time ago and since pretty much forgotten about.
Our car costs are only those associated with their running and maintenance. If I was paying out on a monthly finance arrangement I’d resent their inactivity a lot more I suppose.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2021 13:48:23 GMT
Ah ha. You probably understand my Civic dilemmas then, Humph...don't make me start that again.
I get your point too Dubya though. But take my flu jab appointment this morning, at 9.50. It's a working day, it was 2 miles away in the town centre. Now I could have walked/cycled, but that would have taken far too much time. An hour round trip on foot, plus 10 minutes at the appointment, plus 10 mintues contingency. Cycling, well that would have been faster obviously but I live up a series of steep hills, which I am not fit enough to ride up (yes, my fault, I ought to be ashamed etc), so again it would have taken too much time and I'd have needed a shower and change after. So, I jumped in the Leaf, parked round the corner from the pharmacy in the street, and was back home in under 30 minutes. Work didn't miss me, I didn't have to take a half a day's annual leave.
And that's someone who lives pretty close to a major town centre with lots of facilities. Unless you actually live in an urban centre though, then we're always going to find a reason to have a personal motorised form of transport. It's just too useful, and so affordable. Mind you, an ebike would have done me today...but then there's the security implications of those in town centres. You have to concrete them into the ground to stop them being stolen. Mrs A's was, whilst parked at the railway station for example. We never bothered replacing it.
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Post by EspadaIII on Oct 6, 2021 15:40:58 GMT
Traffic at about 90% of pre-Covid levels in Manchester I reckon. Fewer people commuting by public transport than the South East.
However in my usual car park, the 99 spaces are rarely full even at about 10:30 when pre-Covid during a usual week I would have struggled to find a spot.
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bpg
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Post by bpg on Oct 6, 2021 15:42:10 GMT
It's something I've been pondering not with any urgency. My Forvo is owned outright, costs an annual service, road tax, insurance and a set of tyres every four or five years. There will come a time when a big bill hits and the car needs replacing or, EU V emissions gets it banned from the roads. I've looked at EVs and the leasing costs are more than double what I'm paying at the moment for a petrol car. I can buy my current lease car for around 40% of the new RRP which based on my current mileage will be a three year old car with around 10,000 miles on the clock. 440€/month buys a lot of petrol and that's before I've charged an EV. Servicing our EV first service came in 100€ less than the first service on my petrol car.
Much as I'd like to switch to EV, based on current usage I can't justify it and will be driving petrol for some time to come. If I keep the ST it also means the boss will have to share her car with the new driver(s).
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Post by dixinormus on Oct 6, 2021 19:47:02 GMT
ICE or EV, I concur with WdB’s musing. For many of us, you’d be mad to want to buy a new car right now, paying inflated prices for a product that is being used less than ever before!
I kinda get the fact that some people have money burning a hole in their pocket after 18 months of enforced lockdown frugality, but bigger storm clouds are now gathering on the economic horizon for just about all of us. Where’s the consumer confidence coming from?!
Urban pollution woes are immediately reduced if we all drive less. And many of us have been driving less. But I guess society will revert to doing what it did before, given the chance...
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Post by dixinormus on Oct 6, 2021 20:27:23 GMT
Coincidentally, I have just read that there is a citizens petition circulating in Berlin to try to ban private car use in some central districts.
Glorified electric golf buggies might be the answer. Seriously, that’s all SWMBO says she needs for local runs. Not GBP£80k German premium EVs. The Chinese manufacturers might yet be our saviours.
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Post by EspadaIII on Oct 6, 2021 20:56:18 GMT
If we are really honest, for most of us, a semi-personal taxi would be wonderful. And eventually we will get that. No personal cars, just efficient taxi services run by robots, not fallible drivers, available 24/7. It may be science fiction but soon it will be fact and maybe in our lifetimes. Premium brands will disappear and car enthusiasts will go the way lovers of music on 78s have gone.
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Post by dixinormus on Oct 6, 2021 21:23:34 GMT
I’m starting to think that “premium” brands can f off right now. To their credit they spent the last 20 years staying premium yet managing to become mass-market, which is an unassailable contradiction in terms you would think! But now they are starting to churn out some questionable designs and questionable tech features at ridiculous prices to try to stay ahead of the mainstream pack. And to protect their ICE business they are only playing in the very expensive end of the EV market. All-in-all slowly becoming utterly irrelevant to most car owners. Automotive dinosaurs.
I for one won’t countenance spending 40 grand on a driveway ornament that might do just 5000 miles/year in this post-Covid age. But I might spend 10-20k on a tidy EV runaround like WdB’s i3.
Would-be EV drivers in NZ are clamouring to buy used Leafs with barely 70 miles of range, because there aren’t any affordable alternatives. Maybe MG ZS or a Zoe. Nobody is rushing in to serve the wider market.
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Post by Humph on Oct 6, 2021 21:35:56 GMT
If I could believe that our current cars would continue to work and work for us long term, I don’t think we would particularly consider there to be any need to change them.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2021 7:54:42 GMT
Coincidentally, I have just read that there is a citizens petition circulating in Berlin to try to ban private car use in some central districts. Glorified electric golf buggies might be the answer. Seriously, that’s all SWMBO says she needs for local runs. Not GBP£80k German premium EVs. The Chinese manufacturers might yet be our saviours. Are there any Renault Twizzies in NZ? Worth importing one? Is the new Citroen AMI coming to NZ?
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Oct 7, 2021 8:23:09 GMT
On the subject of going nowhere, I was struck by the history section of my new MoT certificate. The car had done 32,000 miles when I bought it in October 2017, so it had quite a busy first year and very little to do since then. The i3 is on course for about 5,000 in its first year; more if MrsB1 accepts the more mobile job she’s been offered this week.
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Post by Humph on Oct 7, 2021 8:33:26 GMT
Takeaway delivery job? 😉
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