Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2020 16:25:23 GMT
Oh joy ! That's the schools shutdown here until 20th April at the earliest and work announcing anyone (globally) who is able to work from home to do so until further notice.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 13, 2020 21:36:05 GMT
Very soon that’ll be the scenario for most countries I suspect Backp!
Even in Australia, where the cloak of complacency is finally slipping..
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 13, 2020 22:03:53 GMT
We’ve had the WAH instruction too, not that I have a choice in the matter anyway. I had been looking forward to a couple of days in Brittany next week, but the customer cancelled that on the strength of Macron’s allocution.
I actually think the government’s scientific advice is about right; it’s no good trying to stop the outbreak becoming an epidemic, so it makes sense to spread it out in time as far as possible to keep it from reaching a peak that overwhelms the health service. Most of us will get it, feel rotten for a week and get better. A small percentage — but still a large number — will get very ill or die. Closing schools won’t stop that, nor will stopping football matches.
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Mar 14, 2020 0:12:46 GMT
Just spotted that Netflix had a documentary-series released at the end of January called: Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak.
From the Radio Times:
Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak starts with a theory that we’re due for a new, fast-moving deadly virus.
The documentary looks back at a deadly influenza virus – which killed 50 to 100 million people at a time when the global population was just two billion in 1918 – showing black and white footage of people in tiny face masks, and lots of mass graves being dug. It moves onto the current battle to contain Ebola virus in Congo to anti-vaxxer parents.
... timely I guess.
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Mar 15, 2020 0:30:09 GMT
The good news... ISIS is warning its terrorists to avoid Europe in case they catch SARS-CoV-2 (not that they probably said SARS-CoV-2 explicitly... I know you lot can be pedants).
This isn't looking positive overall. Tomorrow's papers suggest over 70s will soon be told to stay indoors for up to 4 months.
On a personal note I have another holiday planned for early May but since last month I wondered if it would happen although had to pay the balance. It's Greece and they have just announced that seasonal tourist accommodation will close until 30th April.... well that's probably going to be extended.
Any other year I'd have planned another getaway before May but after we got back from Greece early Feb we thought it best not to go anywhere. How right we were.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 15, 2020 0:53:05 GMT
I don’t think that things will be back to anything like “normal” until the end of June. Schools & universities until the new term in September even... 😳
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 15, 2020 16:37:43 GMT
Suppose they do decide to close schools; what will be the criterion for reopening them?
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 15, 2020 17:03:37 GMT
....Dyson ventilator, anyone.....?
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Mar 15, 2020 18:39:38 GMT
I would imagine they would have approached Dyson to manufacture something if they still had UK capacity to do so.
What I don't understand is what designs are these businesses going to work to? Some parts might be made in the UK but we don''t assemble any. So to say production will be significantly ramped up is irrelevant.... making 10 would be much more than 0. But don't they need to meet certain standards... we'll regret letting China make so much we rely on.
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Post by Alanović on Mar 16, 2020 8:27:08 GMT
The good news... ISIS is warning its terrorists to avoid Europe in case they catch SARS-CoV-2 (not that they probably said SARS-CoV-2 explicitly... I know you lot can be pedants). This isn't looking positive overall. Tomorrow's papers suggest over 70s will soon be told to stay indoors for up to 4 months. On a personal note I have another holiday planned for early May but since last month I wondered if it would happen although had to pay the balance. It's Greece and they have just announced that seasonal tourist accommodation will close until 30th April.... well that's probably going to be extended. Any other year I'd have planned another getaway before May but after we got back from Greece early Feb we thought it best not to go anywhere. How right we were. Hi Rob, I've got some accommodation booked in Greece in April for Easter. Can you post a link to any article quoting this closure please, might help get some money back on a cancellation.
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 16, 2020 8:34:20 GMT
Can you post a link to any article quoting this closure please, might help get some money back on a cancellation. I'm sure there will be a more definitive (Government) statement, but it is covered in here: www.atoz-guides.com/coronavirus-update-6/
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Mar 16, 2020 9:28:41 GMT
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Post by Alanović on Mar 16, 2020 9:39:19 GMT
OK, thanks. We've got a private rental apartment booked, I expect we'll end up losing the money/booking. Oh well, worse things happen at sea.
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 17, 2020 8:18:01 GMT
Worse things are set to happen here. I’m about to do something unfamiliar: defend Boris Johnson. He took some criticism for saying that people would inevitably die but, apart from the mawkish phrase ‘loved ones’, it was the right thing to say. Now he’s been railroaded into what is little more than a public-relations exercise.
I simply don’t see closing the doors and waiting for this disease to go away as a viable strategy. By the time we step outside again — in July? October? — there could be very little left. Yet this seems to be the strategy across Europe, and we’ve been shamed into following suit. It’s being expressed in terms of avoiding a quarter of a million deaths, but it’s merely postponing most of them (all right, all of them, but you know what I mean) and many not for very long — at the potential cost of the entire economy. Big businesses will take the hit and ride it out somehow, unless they’re airlines or hoteliers. But who in the SME sector, never mind the self-employed, has the reserves to survive months without revenue?
I was looking at my year-end income and tax figures yesterday. (I’m an Excel geek and it’s a nice dataset to play with.) 2019-20 went pretty well for me, but it’s only the third full tax year in which my real-terms earnings exceeded what I made in 2007-08. We know what happened then, and we’re still barely recovered from it — even those as fortunate as me. This has the potential to cause something far worse, because governments would rather not admit that there’s nothing they can do.
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 17, 2020 9:10:43 GMT
As I've already posted on here, things are going to be considerably worse than most people were expecting up to a week ago. A very large number of people are going to be affected by the virus before this is over, and probably even more by the economic fall-out (that'll be all the survivors, then). The world as we know it will change dramatically, and things will not return to any semblance of "normality" for a few years. (and that will be a new normality). The's a certain amount of sense, W, in what you say about the change in tack, but it takes a strong Government to let a large proportion of its population die (probably in a very unpleasant way). Even with the measures already implemented elsewhere, (and which we are now largely following), the situation for families, and particularly for health workers, is pretty horrific; any worse could see significant civil unrest, which would only exacerbate things. In reality, the concept of "herd immunity" is the only long-term possible goal, but what is at debate is the appropriate way of achieving it. Frankly, there seems to be only two potential ways of getting there with the appropriate antibodies - letting the great majority of the population catch it, a good number die, then hope that it doesn't readily re-infect the survivors (who could be 80% plus on current estimates) or await a vaccine. A vaccine is being flagged as being 12-18 months away (if viable), but if things carry on as they are, there will be some significant pressure to cut those timescales by shortcutting testing (whether that's a good idea or not is beyond my scientific abilities). Those with the appropriate insight might be considering a more informed view on the possible timescale, and feeding that into strategy. The other factor that will be being closely watched is any change of infection rate once/if the Chinese take the lockdown off Wuhan/Hubei. Will they choose to go the whole hog, or reduce to a still fairly comprehensive "social distancing" regime in order to try to manage numbers? (I gathered that the Italians are also expecting to see cases peak in the next two or three days, then fall off). The figures that emanate from this post-peak position might well advise the best way forward, and force an even further change to strategy in the coming days/weeks, though the informed view (which appears logical), is that there is no real exit-strategy from lockdown (at least without a vaccine). If/when this is over, you are going to see some dramatic changes to the way individual countries conduct themselves - an awful lot, for example, are going to question outsourcing much of their manufacturing capacity to China, and reconsider what they regard as "strategic" manufacturing capability to retain locally. I think food-chains are going to come under some scrutiny as well (particularly if a long lockdown (worldwide) results in problems). I must admit, I've re-evaluated my future prospects (being on the edge of the high-risk grouping) and have a slightly more pessimistic view of the future (and even my prospects of longer term survival ). I'd like to catch it and not need hospital, please Anyway, it is what it is. A last bulk DIY shop today so I have enough to keep me occupied during "social distancing". We have the forest on our doorstep, so can walk daily and avoid contact quite easily (some contact is best avoided anyway - we were preceded by 3 naked ramblers yesterday - previous "best" was only 1). Good luck to all, and best wishes in particular to Esp, who must be feeling pretty isolated and in two minds where he is.
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