Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2020 14:09:37 GMT
Can we hope that Dominic Cummins gets it bad? You seen the video clip of him literally running out of 10 Downing Street today? "2020 - The Movie" - it's gonna be big. |
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 27, 2020 19:23:45 GMT
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Mar 27, 2020 22:14:31 GMT
Very funny - thanks for sharing.
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 28, 2020 19:36:40 GMT
Today the Medical Director of the NHS told us that 20,000 is the new par score for deaths in the UK from COVID-19. Just take a moment to contrast that with 300,000 a couple of weeks ago. Then remember that these are, according to the estimable estimator Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, deaths that, to a first approximation, were due to happen in the next 12 months anyway. Then reflect that we’ve turned the entire world upside down to achieve this.
I know, as I’m sure we all do, a few people who are anxious about their own health in the face of this situation. I know several more who have close family who have health problems or are in front-line health jobs with a high risk of infection (though still a low risk of anything more serious.) Such people are likely to be the most fervent advocates of ‘lockdown’ or to tell you that the current restrictions don’t go far enough.
But aren’t we now at the point where far more than 20,000 — or even 300,000 — deaths will result from the economic depression that will inevitably follow this? And yet you can bet that the next week will see some tightening of the restrictions. And we’ll comply, because we do, but is it time to start questioning the political — rather than medical — reasoning?
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 28, 2020 19:56:46 GMT
Patently, we will only be able to better understand the arguments with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight (though we won't actually have the benefit of fully understanding the "what ifs" even then).
I think there's a glaring flaw in your argument, though.....
The "experts" now postulating that 20000 deaths might be a possible maximum aspiration are still clearly predicating that on firm continuation of the existing measures, otherwise they hold that 250k to 500k is back in play.
The latter is patently unacceptable, politically or societally.
There may be some game-changing developments yet to come, but neither the scientists nor the politicians are going to place their bets at the current odds.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 28, 2020 20:22:06 GMT
I hear you WDB. But I think the country has to wait another couple of weeks in lockdown to see where this is heading with more data & confidence.
But I am worried that some governments and police forces might start to enjoy the taste of power if we go on too long like this...
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 28, 2020 20:27:50 GMT
Missed the edit, so here's more:
It may be that a significant number of the 20000 would die in the next 12 months anyway, but there is a caution on that.
The current people who are dying are within the capacity of the NHS to treat, because the peak is currently being constrained. There appears to be a considerable number of younger/fitter people people in ICU who also won't die because that peak is being constrained, enabling them to get treatment allowing them to recover (and taking a matter of weeks, I understand).
As soon as demand exceeds supply in ICUs the brown stuff starts to hit the fan. Otherwise healthy people who would have an expectation of a normal lifespan will not get the treatment that enables that. Suddenly, the problem expands across the whole of the population.
Patently, you can weed the infirm and unfit off the available ventilators and let them die (I think there's going to be an element of that anyway) but an unconstrained epidemic is soon going to overcome the effects of that as well. Not just crinklies dying, but all your otherwise healthy nearest and dearest.
Now, you've touched on the absence of consistent data, and I'd concede that. The above is (informed) conjecture based on such available data as I can see - it would be interesting to see, for example, who exactly is clogging up the ICU facilities, their profile, and the expectation or otherwise of recovery with and without intensive treatment of those admitted to hospital.
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Post by EspadaIII on Mar 29, 2020 5:36:32 GMT
Spain is suffering from that problem now. Older, infirm or simply high-risk of death anyway patients are being removed from ventilators to die, simply so the young, fit and economically active can live.
It makes sense, but it's a horrible decision to make.
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Post by Humph on Mar 29, 2020 11:43:56 GMT
All manner of mostly trivial dilemmas arise.
Like should I bother to take my winter tyres off or will it be October before the car goes very far anyway...
🤔
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 29, 2020 11:46:42 GMT
or will it be October before the car goes very far anyway... ...which year? (You're getting on a bit now, though, aren't you? Probably not worth wasting the effort  ) |
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 29, 2020 11:56:33 GMT
Cold with flurries of snow here today. It'll be interesting to see how the new-found "cult of exercise" survives the rather more inclement conditions.
We've done over 7 miles walking on each of the last 3 days. It might be slightly shorter today, but I think we'll see rather less (of the already admittedly few) people out on our travels.
Almost no activity up and down the road outside so far today.
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Post by Humph on Mar 29, 2020 12:00:36 GMT
Aye there is that I suppose. ( the "getting on" bit )
Going for a gentle bike ride shortly. Worked out a circular route from home that involves primarily dedicated cycle paths. Not entirely scenic as it involves Crewe but beggars...etc.
Reckon it'll be about 12 miles all up and on hard surfaces, so not all that challenging but hey what can you do eh?
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 29, 2020 12:13:40 GMT
SWMBOs arm is still nowhere near up to riding a bike, otherwise that would be a way of varying our exercise.
Much of the area we are currently walking is cycleable (mainly reasonable but rough-surfaced tracks) but from entering the forest 200 yards away, we can cycle off-road in 3 or 4 directions, and could easily do 30 mile out-and-back trips that way.
Sherwood Pines, which is accessible to us via a few miles of an indirect off-road route, is a major off-road biking location, with a reasonable amount of variety (if ultimately not the most advanced/challenging).
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WDB
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Post by WDB on Mar 29, 2020 14:15:02 GMT
It was the wind more than the temperature that put me off riding today. It was breezy enough yesterday for the occasional gust to blow me off course, but nothing much to worry about. Today is a different matter, really not cycling weather in terms of comfort or safety.
I did lift a nice cup of coffee and a couple of dark Schoko Leibniz, though. Will that do?
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Rob
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Post by Rob on Mar 29, 2020 15:55:07 GMT
With regards the potential number of fatalities I seem to recall that 20,000 vs 250,000 vs 500,000 were always mentioned depending on lockdowns etc. There is even talk of far fewer deaths in the UK if the lockdown continues as is.
We need to remain in lockdown for a while longer to make sure it's working. Probably a few months or possibly more.
Glad I don't have to decide who stays on a ventilator or has to give one up. But when you get the high level of fatalities in Italy and Spain I don't suppose there are any alternatives. If this was a war battle ground triage of casualties would determine who treat first.
EDIT: Just saw the headline that the Deputy Chief Medical Officer says it will be 6 months before we are back to normal lives.
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