The big, swanky estate car thread

I would, Avant, but there really aren't any. The model is three months old in the UK and more than half of sales are the 520d, which I don't want, capable as it undoubtedly would be.

Sunroofs are a problem here too. It's not a critical pass-fail as in the CLS, but the car has better headroom and more seat-position options without, so I really don't want one.

There's also the cash flow question. If I want BMW's cheap money, I have to buy new. Mercedes money costs more - and in any case, 18-month-old CLS SBs are available and better value.


M

Cylinder count is getting less and less relevant, at least where petrol engines are concerned. I've driven the six-cylinder 540i too, and - although it's noticeably faster, of course - the engine doesn't have much more in the way of 'personality', not even the way my five-year-old, six-cylinder diesel does. Evo magazine agrees with me, preferring the 530d - which has a version of the 3.0d engine in my car - to the 540i. Those are both sixes, of course - as is the diesel in a CLS350d. The 530i is perfectly usable, very, very civilized and still faster than most things on the road, and its cylinder count is not a consideration for me.

Its fuel type is. What I am concerned about is a diesel as a long-term ownership prospect, especially starting at this price level. I can see a panicky rush away from diesels, probably starting at the lower end of the market where petrol alternatives are more plentiful, but before long affecting the top end too. Maybe I'm part of that panic if I buy a petrol BMW instead of a diesel Mercedes; I'd probably not be protecting myself from a loss of more than the £9,000 extra (before post-2017 VED) that I'd be paying for the privilege.

What's your expected annual mileage WdB? If it's a car for weekends and holidays then it's not going to crack 12,000 a year is it? Hardly diesel territory by the modern day rule of thumb...

I suppose I need to attempt a total cost of ownership model, with risk provisions for various degrees of diesel devaluation (and possibly punitive fuel taxation too.)

8,000-10,000 miles a year makes petrol the clear choice where there is a choice. But in my case that also comes with new-car depreciation and the post-2017 super-VED. And in this immediate case, the diesel option (the CLS, not the 530d) actually comes at the lower initial price, so it's not a conventional break-even calculation.

It isn't simple because there are cost, risk and desirability factors pulling each way - down to small things like the BMW's opening tailgate window, which would make holiday lunch-stop provisions accessible without having to pull back the bike carrier. And this is without trying to ensure that I realize some of the E220's enhanced trade-in value, which will require the 325 to make way for the new estate.

I'll get there - or not - so forgive my witterings as I turn things over. Hey, we're here to talk about cars, aren't we?

Citroën is doing diesel trade-ins too.

"Who really wants to do 20,000 miles pa in a small car".

I have averaged 15-16,000 mile in a Golf GTD for the last3.5 years and have enjoyed every bit of it. No desire for a large car for me.

Did a very rough TCO comparison over four years, modelling the effects of a future government escalator on diesel taxation and an assumed loss of value of diesel vehicles compared with what they fetch today. I reckon it would take a 40% drop to bring the cost of ownership of a 2016 CLS 350d bought for £30,000 roughly level with that of a 530i bought new for £40,000. Of course, my crude assumptions of future values are open to challenge, but I doubt they're that far off - taking a benchmark of 40% of list at three years; likewise my assumption of 40mpg from a 350d and 35mpg from a 530i. I assumed that servicing and insurance will be much the same in either case, but I allowed for the VED surcharge on new, expensive cars, which wouldn't apply to a 2016 car, and allowed £1,000 for a couple of add-ons (including the towbar) that would be in a factory-build 530i but that I'd have to add to a used CLS.

Seems to strengthen the case for the 350d on financial grounds. I also modelled a late-2014 350 CDI, bought at £18,000 - which costs, as you'd expect, significantly less again. In fact it seems pretty clear that I don't save money by buying a 530i, so I have to decide whether it would make up for that in utility or enjoyment.