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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 15, 2020 8:50:02 GMT
My suspicion is that you will be lucky if even intra-country restrictions have been fully removed within that timescale (though patently, any Government will be under pressure to relax them if numbers fall).
With almost every country having now introduced inter-country restrictions (at the lightest end, self-quarantine, at the heaviest a complete travel ban), I think it could be quite a lot longer before such controls are fully-relaxed. Having got over the "hump", no administration is going to want to be accused of re-importing it from somewhere else, and the timelines for any complete removal of infection are likely to be quite different, country by country.
Patently, there is a possibility that the virus has a limited life, or that some other remedy will be found rather quickly, but those are at the lower end of probability.
I wouldn't bet on a (overseas, at least) holiday this year at all. Blackpool in November, anyone?
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Post by EspadaIII on Mar 15, 2020 9:33:31 GMT
Well, after a very wet weekend in Israel with torrential rain from Thursday night to Saturday morning my enforced stay may at least be sunny and bright.
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Post by Humph on Mar 15, 2020 9:47:13 GMT
Provided it remains possible to travel freely in the uk, we might rethink our holiday plans and look at a tour of Britain's best MTB centres. Could maybe start at Fort William, on to the Cairngorms, back down to Glentress in the Borders, the Lake District etc and so on until we get down to Dartmoor or something. Day or two in each location.
Might even be fun.
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Post by tyrednexited on Mar 15, 2020 12:01:32 GMT
I think that might be optimistic - and I'm not generally an over-pessimistic person (though I might err slightly that way ). Though I'm interested in the views, I prefer to keep out of debate on the best method of handling the outbreak (since I am not in receipt of much of the relevant data, and can't do much to influence anyone's approach but my own and immediate family) but it is only 6 months to the end of Summer, and all the indications are that the situation is likely to get worse (and the Government response to it more draconian) rather than better in that intervening timescale. If you give credence to the idea that the Government is trying to "flatten" the demand on the NHS, then it is very likely that significant restrictions are going to be implemented in that timescale (and also that the "levelling" approach will extend the duration of the outbreak). The crinklies are already being softened up for prolonged lock-down (maybe up to four months is being suggested, but who knows?). I'd be quite surprised, if things continue as they are, if this wasn't followed by complete "area" or city lockdowns for all the population where infection rates are highest. (In essence, I think the approach of many other European countries will eventually be implemented, but the Government is being careful about timing to ensure greater compliance). In short, I do think we are in unprecedented times. Even if the rates of contagion and death are at the lower levels of debate, there will be significant disruption to normal life required to manage the fall-out, and it will continue for longer than most of us will be happy with. Under the circumstances, and whilst this continues, I think it is going to be difficult, and certainly uncomfortable (possibly physically, but certainly mentally), to spend much of one's life out of touch with your home base.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 15, 2020 21:50:49 GMT
I hope that the world’s governments don’t get too used to controlling the population like this. Things may never be the same again.
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Post by EspadaIII on Mar 16, 2020 7:16:49 GMT
It is strange that huge changes in one's lifestyle happen very quickly.
The use of technology is a series of incremental steps such that now we cannot live without the internet, but in reality we can if we set our minds to it. But changes in society that we are seeing are rapid and unprecedented and the effect on individuals is astonishing. We are all affected by it negatively some more than others.
Will we return to our old ways? If so, when and if not, is this the new normal?
Has the golden age of international travel ended. Those of us who chose to buy holiday homes overseas, when we will next use them? If family members moved overseas, when will next see them?
We are so used now to 'mixed marriages'; they improve the gene pool. Will this reduce so we have more families from the same geographic and genetic pool, so what will happen to health?
So many questions.....no one has the answers.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 10:46:25 GMT
We are so used now to 'mixed marriages'; they improve the gene pool. Will this reduce so we have more families from the same geographic and genetic pool, so what will happen to health? Hapsburg chin, or the local equivalent, all-round.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 16, 2020 22:36:43 GMT
I fear that this may become the new normal. Huge savings in energy, pollution, time and money in curtailing citizens’ mobility, the planet might thank is for it. But huge social costs: isolation, depression etc.
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Post by EspadaIII on Mar 17, 2020 7:03:15 GMT
I can understand the depression bit...
But last night I visited a friend who is from Edinburgh but is a Liverpool supporter. That cheered me up no end....
I was the recipient of several calls yesterday afternoon with news of rumours that Israel was going to close its borders. That really concerned me as I have in my mind that I would go home in about four weeks.
Anyway the government announcement last night did not include that. In fact after some sweeping changes on Saturday night, the changes yesterday were modest and did really affect people's ability to do the basics or even go for a walk.
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WDB
Full Member
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Post by WDB on Mar 17, 2020 7:53:34 GMT
I’d hold off booking the tickets WdB. Who knows what travel restrictions might be imposed in the weeks ahead! This is what would have been the centrepiece of our visit. A few weeks ago I was cursing my family for failing to agree on a plan for a summer holiday. Now, as a result of all that inconclusive bickering, we are at least without any plans to unwind or insurance claims to make.
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Post by dixinormus on Mar 17, 2020 23:50:17 GMT
You may have to endure a lot more inconclusive bickering in the months ahead as the household suffers from cabin fever WdB 😩
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