|
|
Post by tyrednexited on Mar 23, 2020 8:48:55 GMT
The young have always considered themselves "invincible".
Part of the problem is that the messaging is all wrong. The elderly/infirm are those that are most at risk, and are less likely to recover from Covid-19 regardless of the level of care that is available to them.
But the propaganda is centred around that age/health profile and seems to stop there.
Fit and healthy people of any age have a chance, the odds increasing with reducing age, but for many across the age ranges, survival depends on the availability of ICU beds, intubation and respirators to ensure that recovery. Whilst there is capacity available, as a younger fitter person, your odds of a dose not being fatal are reasonable. You aren't necessarily going to have a nice time of it though!
As soon as the capacity is exceeded, though, your chances as a younger/fit person also take a nose dive - at that point, the mortality rate increases across the board (though the odds still biased more against the old/infirm, who will also find themselves towards the end of the queue for facilities).
Social-distancing is intended to reduce/delay the enormity of that lack of capacity; once it is exceeded, it won't only be the oldies that suffer, it could be anyone who would otherwise recover with intensive intervention.
You might feel the following is rather politically motivated, I suspect there is a lot of truth in it:
MP Rosena Allin-Khan, who also works as an A&E doctor at St George's Hospital in South London, also bitterly attacked the Government's approach.
She said her latest shift had been a "deeply, deeply eye-opening" experience with previously fit and healthy people in their 30s and 40s "attached to machines, fighting for their lives".
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425 
|
Post by WDB on Mar 23, 2020 9:22:44 GMT
I heard that interview too. Powerful as it was, it remains anecdote and (as always) I’d like to see numbers. Not to be lightly disregarded, though.
But social distancing will still be most effective at reducing pressure on ICUs if those most likely to require ICU treatment in the short term do the most to isolate themselves. And the numbers say that those are the elderly and those with existing health problems. For every ICU case avoided by an under-40 distancing or self-isolating, each over-70 can prevent many times as many.
|
|
|
|
Post by dixinormus on Mar 23, 2020 20:36:48 GMT
BoJo now addressing the nation and imposing a full lockdown. Let’s see if anyone defies him.
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Mar 23, 2020 22:18:45 GMT
We’re allowed out for one episode of exercise a day. Guess i won’t be getting the new bike to the shop to find out why the rear tyre keeps losing pressure, so I’ll be mainly using the other bike — not that that’s any great hardship.
We are well enough stocked here even to feed teenagers for a week or two. After that it’ll get interesting — unless they like cat biscuits, of which we seem to have most of southern England’s supply.
|
|
|
|
Post by Hofmeister on Mar 24, 2020 14:43:49 GMT
How we all doing. Wifey has had her nursing call to arms, the queens shilling is being offered, and she will probably agree. In doing so she has made extensive enquiries with her mates in the local NHS trust. A trust which was the first to take over all the nuffield and bupa hospitals before the national agreement was in place.
Currently, although busy, our major hospital is coping well, and has two cases in intensive care, both with pre existing medical issues. There is none of this "people gasping for breath and dying. or crying exhausted staff.
All routine, non urgent or elective surgery has been cancelled, the childrens wards and orthopaedic wards are pretty much empty with staff redeployed elsewhere. I know its not London, but this is a slice of real news not social meeja or hearsay. It could all of course change in a few days.
|
|
|
|
Post by Hofmeister on Mar 24, 2020 14:48:05 GMT
BoJo now addressing the nation and imposing a full lockdown. Let’s see if anyone defies him. Currently Bojo does not have the legislative or judicial powers to enforce anything he has said. The police can not "fine you" for going out more than once, there cant be a legal blockade, nor would three people as opposed to 2 people be an illegal gathering. It will all change of course when the emergency powers are through parliament and on the statute book, but thats next week at the earliest. Alas there will be no police to enforce any of it. |
|
|
|
Post by tyrednexited on Mar 24, 2020 14:59:16 GMT
...instant obliteration by Apache helicopter for anyone spotted towing a caravan, however (and amnesty for the armed forces).  |
|
|
|
Post by Hofmeister on Mar 24, 2020 15:13:00 GMT
The beemer is faster than your average soviet T90A, and at 120 mph with a shed on the back its going to be weaving quite a bit. No soft target here mush.
|
|
|
|
Post by tyrednexited on Mar 24, 2020 15:26:42 GMT
 ‘You've got to ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?’ |
|
|
|
Post by Hofmeister on Mar 24, 2020 15:30:36 GMT
reminds me of the time I went to film a steam train at Grately, perfick it was, fantastic audio, till the boys at the nearby Army School of flying rocked up with a pair of Apachies and practised a targeting and strafing run over the top of it.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 15:37:19 GMT
Hey Hof, all power to your missus, hope you all stay well.
|
|
WDB
Full Member
Posts: 7,425
|
Post by WDB on Mar 24, 2020 16:01:14 GMT
Treated myself to the first of my daily pootles, this time on the blue bike. (Although bike shops are on the exceptions list, so I may yet get the brown one seen to.) Lots of people out, including a fair few over-70s, although fewer than Sunday and, with one exception, maintaining correct separation.
Not much happening in town. Had an envelope to drop in at the surgery for MrsB1. They are taking no casual visitors at all, just a tray in the lobby to leave it in with the inner door locked. I did see an actual train leave the station, though, preceded by an announcement along the lines of Is Your Journey Really Necessary?
Bizarre experience all the same. And I’m still at work.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 16:10:13 GMT
The road I live on is a straight, long, tree lined Avenue, which ends at the beginning of some great footpaths in to South Oxfordshire countryside. It is busier than ever with joggers and cyclists, to the extent I feel like I can't go out even with the dog, and maintain social distancing. On Sunday, even my MP went careening by, less than 2 metres from me, jogging.
I do wish people would *Naughty word* off and keep their exercise "needs" to their own neighbourhood.
Harumph.
I shall now sit in the garden for half an hour throwing a tennis ball for the dog.
EDIT: Ooooh, I see the swear filter has been beefed up. More Harumph. Nothing wrong with a good swear in the Village Pub Public Bar.
|
|
|
|
Post by Hofmeister on Mar 24, 2020 16:49:29 GMT
Now this may or may not sound weird and certainly not something you would associate with me.
Backstory. Last year I tore a tendon in my rotator cuff. it healed sufficiently (with the aid of some IV painkillers and anti inflammatory during my second cancer op) to respond well to an ultrasound guided steroid injection.
The physio that was offered by the hospital afterwards (an instruction book) was a waste of space so I have been going to a soft tissue injury sports physio, who also happens to be a yoga instructor.
Stick with me, it gets valid for coronavirus
I have been having massage / exercise sessions with her (its all about the core init) but she starts off every session with 5 minutes mindfulness, yoga style. No chanting but the breathing and calming your body and mind
Its effing brilliant! I do 5 minutes mindfulness every morning.
Lockdowns, risk? stress? yeah so what. I can cope, life is ok, go with the flow, be pleasant, meet your goals in a calm organised confident but relaxed manner. take what comes, cope!
Wish I had got into it - (mindfulness that is) years ago.
|
|
|
|
Post by tyrednexited on Mar 24, 2020 17:05:57 GMT
I can cope, life is ok, go with the flow, be pleasant, meet your goals in a calm organised confident but relaxed manner. .....sounds good. How long will it be before it kicks in....? |
|
