Polestar 3>4<5

I think the manufacturers have seen this coming. Volkswagen’s CARIAD, for one, has offered ‘lifetime’ support of AAOS - baselined at 15 years but recognising that things like Bugattis and Porsches are often bought to be kept for much longer. This gets into complicated matters of software architecture - making automotive applications modular and ‘containerised’ like datacentre systems, with standardised interfaces between modules, so that an update to one part doesn’t require matching changes in all the others.

There are enough vested interests here to give some confidence that we won’t have to throw away cars the way we’ve learned with phones — in any case, not many people have a drawer big enough. Nor do I think anyone will be throwing away a three-year-old iX because a new car has double the range with half the mass. It will go on doing pretty much what it does today for many years, and that will be value enough for someone — although the price attached to that value may be hard to predict until we have more data.

Today’s email trumpets ‘Polestar 4 is here’. Only I really don’t think it is. I can order one but it’ll be Q3 at the earliest before I can even get a demo and, according to Polestar’s own media page, first deliveries are ‘expected’ in August.

I’ll probably still take up my test drive invitation when (if) it comes, because I’m curious like that, and an order would have required only a token deposit. But, while It’s undoubtedly a lovely piece of design, and neatly packaged for the space it offers, it’s hard to see the company delivering this and the 3 in meaningful numbers for quite a while, if ever. Not regretting ordering something else (and something made in Germany, not in China) just yet.

It is odd that there really hasn't been much significant advance in the performance of EVs (performance I mean in terms of range and overall technology) since the EV6/Ionic 5 came out. Even now the EV6 is considered to be the best 'family EV' three years after it was released and with few if any upgrades. The I5 has got the bigger battery and a few minor changes (including a rear wiper!).

Disappointing that Volvo (and Ford) cannot get their best chance of volume EV sales to market before October this year.

I don't think manufacturers are choosing not to make cars and sell them, the demand is not there to hit 22% in the market. They will not sell a car at huge loss. If the projected sales for the year are say 11,000 EVs then total sales can only be 50,000. If the 50,001 vehicle is a £30k petrol car, a fine of £15k means it is not worth selling that car in the UK.

Weak sales, being the whole EV market. Looking at the EV sales numbers for Q1 and extrapolating for the year Ford would have to capture around 10% of the whole UK EV market to enable them to sell the same number of vehicles as sold in 2023 and avoid fines.

Every EV under 10% of total EV market reduces the total number of vehicles they can sell.

Edit: Ford are not the only company.

"Last month, Carlos Tavares, chief executive at Stellantis, which is the parent group of Vauxhall, Citroen, Peugeot and other major automotive brands, said the UK's ZEV mandate could see Stellantis slash the number of cars it sells in Britain, even refusing to rule out halting sales of some models altogether.

But a source close to the company said the more likely option was that sales would be restricted or prices would rise to compensate."

Source: www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-13396647/Ford-boss-says-car-maker-restrict-availability-petrol-models-UK-order-hit-EV-sales-targets.html

For those restricted by the pay wall. I think it was also reported in the FT article. I recall also seeing a video with someone saying a similar thing for Skoda. VAG will benefit as a group if Cupra move enough EVs combined with VW ID.n models.

Manufacturers are more focused on exactly where they want to be and their target markets. You say, "not many people will miss Ford". The complaining about lack of choice in the marketplace is already heard and will get worse - you can have any EV as long as it's a crossover or SUV.
Some new manufacturers will enter certain spaces within a market causing people to not notice the still reduced choice.

Setting a market cap for a product where demand is weak and attaching penalties will choke the market. The products in demand will come at a premium and can be used to subsidise the product with lower demand, nothing new there. Saying the price of EVs must come down what you are witnessing is the complete opposite, the price of petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrid will rise to EV levels.

The Fiesta v Renault 5 comment is quite laughable. One manufacturer phases out a vehicle to make space for a new EV in their lineup compared with a manufacturer launching a new EV rehashing an old name and a few styling queues.
One of the manufacturers already did that and the sky was falling in according to conneseurs of internal combustion engined vehicles.

On the other hand I have just had a call from the local Ford dealer with whom I made contact about six weeks ago about the Explorer EV. I was told I could not even touch a car until October at the earliest.

Well... "Would you like a short (20 minute) accompanied test drive on 25th July?" was the call today. Heck, Yes! I don't need more than 20 minutes to decide if the car will make it to the short list. I will worry about the little details when I can do a longer test drive.